Q4 2026 was never going to be a normal fourth quarter. Political advertisers are projected to spend $11.6B this election cycle, a figure that surpasses both the $8.9B 2022 midterm cycle and the $11.2B 2024 presidential cycle. That spend is landing in the same weeks, and often on the same screens, brands rely on for holiday.
For media planners building Q4 budgets, that overlap changes the calculus. It's not just more competition for attention. It's more competition for the specific inventory, pricing, and flexibility brands count on during their highest-stakes weeks of the year.
Where the money is going
Broadcast television remains the largest single destination for political dollars, projected to capture $5.6B, or roughly 48% of total spend this cycle. Connected TV (CTV) is the fastest-growing piece of the mix, projected at $2.7B, or about 23% of cycle spending, reinforcing streaming as a genuine growth channel for political advertisers rather than a secondary option. That growth builds on a trend already underway: political CTV spend grew roughly 600% between 2020 and 2024, from about $260M to more than $1.5B. Perion's own Todd Cohen recently explored what this collision means for retail CTV budgets specifically, and it's exactly the kind of scale that makes automated CTV campaign management worth having in place before the pressure peaks.
The pressure doesn't stay flat either. During the 2024 election cycle, programmatic CPMs began rising in July and climbed sharply through October and November, with 48% of digital political budgets spent in the final 30 days before Election Day. That's the exact window most brands are counting on for peak holiday performance. See exactly when this pressure builds, peaks, and eases in the Q4 election-year readiness briefing.
Why this matters for Q4 planning
Election-year media pressure is colliding directly with the holiday peak. As political demand increases, brands should expect more competition for attention, tighter inventory, and greater ad fatigue, particularly heading into Q4.
The brands that wait until the final weeks to react will have fewer options. The ones that plan earlier and diversify across channels have a real chance to preserve flexibility as the market tightens around them.
This is the first in a series looking at what election-year media pressure means for Q4 planning, channel by channel. Next up: why political advertisers are increasingly investing in out-of-home, and what that means for brands navigating a more competitive media landscape.
Talk to Perion about building flexibility into your Q4 media plan.
