In our last post, we made the case for planning Q4 as a barbell instead of a bell curve, two distinct buying windows instead of one steady ramp. There’s a second reason the early window matters this year specifically: the retailers who wait aren’t just risking a missed audience, they’re walking into a materially more expensive market.
Political demand is already climbing
Basis Technologies’ analysis of the 2024 election cycle found that programmatic CPMs for political campaigns increased steadily starting in July and peaked more than 40% above average in October and November. Programmatic video CPMs specifically nearly doubled the election-cycle average price in November, after already climbing more than 50% above average in October. The 2026 midterms are forecast to be an even larger cycle, which means this pressure isn’t hypothetical, it’s a repeat with higher stakes.
Historically, prices don’t reset the moment the election ends, either. Analysis from Basis Technologies, Gupta Media, and Perion’s own Q4 data found that post-election CPMs rose 16% to 44% between November 11 and December 2 in past cycles, as retail and brand advertising that had been displaced by political spend flooded back into the same inventory. A media plan built assuming prices ease right after Election Day is planning for a dip that, historically, hasn’t shown up until well after the retail season is already underway.
What this looks like on the ground: our own DOOH data
This isn’t only visible in political ad forecasts. Perion’s own Q4 2025 Digital Out-of-Home data showed average CPMs rising from $7.77 in October to $13.53 in December, a 74% increase over the course of the season. That pattern held consistently enough across our own analysis that we now use it as a standing benchmark across verticals: demand concentrated late in the year drives price up for everyone competing for the same inventory, not just political advertisers.
Why retail budgets get caught in the middle
Retail media plans don’t compete against political spend in a vacuum, they compete for the same programmatic inventory, often in the same markets. States carrying the heaviest 2026 political spend, including California, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, will see the most pressure. A retailer with significant presence in those markets is effectively bidding against a political ad cycle for the exact weeks its own holiday campaign needs to be most visible.
What this means for how budget should move
The response isn’t to avoid Q4 CTV and DOOH investment, it’s to buy earlier. Locking in guaranteed inventory or fixed pricing before the political ramp intensifies in September and October protects budget from an increase that’s already predictable from the pattern above, and from the two rate spikes it tends to produce, once heading into the election and again once displaced retail demand returns after it. This is the same principle from our last post: the early window isn’t just about reaching shoppers before they’ve finished their wish lists, it’s about buying media before the price of reaching them climbs, twice.
The takeaway
The barbell season means budget needs to move earlier. The CPM ambush means that budget is worth less the longer it waits. Together, they’re the same argument from two angles: a Q4 plan built for a single November peak isn’t just missing shoppers, it’s paying a premium to reach the ones still there.
Managing a Q4 campaign well means moving budget, creative, and measurement in real time, not just planning ahead of it. If you want a second set of eyes on how your current plan handles rising CPMs, contact us today.
